Expect Q4 numbers to reflect the impact of demonetisation: Ghosh

Data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) on Tuesday suggested that the Indian economy is likely to grow at 7.1 percent for FY17, 80 basis points slower than previous year's 7.9 percent growth.

It said that for the third quarter of FY17 the economy grew by 7 percent against 7.2 percent in the same quarter last year, suggesting that the impact of demonetisation was next to negligible.

Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Chief Economic Advisor, SBI said that the number as of now seems to have been extrapolated based on the formal sector data and the impact of demonetisation.

"Possibly we could see some impact in Q4 numbers, they could be a little lower than Q3 numbers. We are not going to revise the projections because we are at 6.6 percent [GDP growth] for the full year and I think the fourth quarter number possibly could reflect some amount of the impact of demonetisation," he said.

Sajjid Chinoy of JP Morgan said that a lot of the impact of demonetisation was on the informal economy which we don't pick up well in the first round.

"So in a sense GVA numbers tend to overstate the impact on the real economy , the informal sector. So if you add those three pieces together, the numbers are not as startling because below the surface there has been some drop-off," he said.

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