October 30, 2023 / 15:43 IST
ICICI Direct's report on currency
Debt market
Government bonds fell for a second session, as a state debt sale boosted supply while investors remained wary during a short trading week ahead of US FOMC minutes • The benchmark 6.97% 2026 bond yield rose to 6.90% in the previous session • Yield on the US 10-year rose to 2. 43% from 2.41% in the previous day.
Forex (US$/INR)
The rupee rose for a second session in the previous trading session as gains in domestic equities and hopes of a recovery in inflows aided rupee strength • The US$ index posted gains of 0.42% against major currencies as uptick in March meeting rate hike probability rose due to hawkish comments from Fed officials. The dollar would be taking cues from upcoming US FOMC meeting minutes.
US$/INR derivatives strategy
In the currency futures market, the most traded dollar-rupee February contract on the NSE ended at 66.96. The February contract open interest fell 5.73% from the previous day • March contract open interest rose 18.60% from the previous day • We expect the US dollar to gain support at lower levels. Utilise downsides in the dollar to go long on the US$INR pair.
Intra-day strategy
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US$INR February futures contract (NSE) | View: Bullish on US$INR |
Buy US$INR in the range of 66.85 - 66.95 | Market Lot: US$1000 |
Target: 67.25 / 67.45 | Stop Loss: 66.80 |
Support | Resistance |
S1/ S2: 66.80 / 66.60 | R1/R2:67.20 /67.40 |
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