NIFTY PSU Bank

Rohit Beri, the CEO &amp; CIO at ArthAlpha is cautious when it comes to US equity markets. "I agree with the AI theme overall, but maybe it's overdone in the short run, so we may see some pullback over there," he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

As far as India is concerned, he believes risks are more on the upside and markets may rally sharply once it starts seeing earnings growth coming back and sentiment turning in the market. "I'm reasonably bullish and expect equity markets to give double digit returns over the next 12-month period," he said.

Do you believe gold serves as a strong hedge or insurance for a portfolio? Given the sharp rally so far, would it be wise to stay away from fresh gold buying at this stage?

Gold has always been a good hedge against inflation in the long run. But, short run correlation between inflation and gold is not that strong. So, when one thinks of gold as a hedge, one has to be very careful. It is definitely a hedge for black swan events. One should not confuse black swan event hedge as an equity downside hedge.

The last few months have been an unprecedented rally in gold due to de-dollarization resulting from change in US geopolitics. I expect the trend in de-dollarization to continue and central bank demand for gold to stay strong. However, the current rally may not last for long. So, one has to be very careful.

I will advise investors to not look at short-term tactical trades in gold but to focus on long-term asset allocation. Taking some profits in gold, particularly in silver at this stage, might actually be a good idea.

Do you expect the year ahead to be a strong one for equity markets?

I'm cautious when it comes to US equity markets. There has been an unprecedented rally in global tech stocks. I agree with the AI theme overall, but maybe it's overdone in the short run, so we may see some pullback over there.

As far as India is concerned, I think the time correction has been substantial. I believe risks are more on the upside and markets may rally sharply once we start seeing earnings growth coming back and sentiment turning in the market. I'm reasonably bullish and expect equity markets to give double digit returns over the next 12-month period.

Do you think foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are gradually shifting more capital towards India?

I'm not particularly seeing a strong inflow as yet, but clearly the outflow seems to have stopped at least, if not at least, then for a temporary basis. I think India at current level looks attractive to me. Maybe not as attractive as China, which is more attractive for sure from a valuation perspective. But I personally think post this earning cycle we should see demand returning again in India.

Remember FII money is comparing what they can make in India to what they can make in their home markets or other emerging markets, including China. So, it's a relative value game. But India does represent a strong capital appreciation opportunity for investors, so I am reasonably bullish about the market.

What are your top picks - segments or stocks - in the consumption space?

I can't talk about stock picks, we are a quant and we play more factors in quants than stocks. From a factor perspective, we will continue to bet on growth and earnings. I do believe that momentum as a factor will start picking up after a long underperformance cycle. Again, take it with a pinch of salt or a bucket of salt. Mean Reversion is the truth of life, so after such a tremendous underperformance, I expect that momentum will make a comeback. Maybe not very strong in the short run, but we should start.

This current month is a good month for momentum. I do see materials doing well, for e.g., cement, solar. From a medium-term perspective, defence should also, I still continue to stay bullish on defence. I am also bullish on banks, given the RBI's recent relaxations in the norms.

Which investment themes are likely to strengthen a portfolio in terms of returns in the next one year, and why?

We are not a thematic player and we don't really think one year out. As of now, as I said, our focus is on growth and earnings. For the time being we will continue to play that. We do expect a comeback on momentum as a strategy and we have a positive allocation to that as well. Value has done very well, exceedingly well. I believe value may lose out to let's have momentum or growth strategies over the next 12-month period. But as a quant, we really don't take that longer calls and we very dynamically adapt to changing market conditions.

Do you expect the US Federal Reserve to continue its monetary easing cycle in October and December? Also, do you believe the recent US Beige Book signals a loss of economic momentum?

I believe we will start to see the effect of tariffs on the US economy as we go forward. The Fed's job, I believe, will get really hard because on one side tariffs will induce inflation, on the other side they will slow down economic activity and may take the economy towards recession and put the US into a stagflation situation.

I do believe at the moment and I expect the Fed to continue the rate cutting cycle, but at some point, in time if the inflation starts hitting them, then it may become a very difficult situation for the Fed to manage.

As of now from our perspective, it's wait and watch and see how things pan out. How tariff linked inflation and how tariff linked slowdown is passed into the economy and what is the net effect post Fed cut rate is yet to be seen. It's unprecedented what's happening.

Uncertainty will continue, equity markets globally will stay volatile. Again, as I said earlier, de-dollarization to continue and gold will likely stay strong. I don't expect the kind of rally we saw and there might be some sharp retracement over the next few weeks.

But overall gold strength and de-dollarization to continue. And as of now, yes, the Fed continues on the easing cycle.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Daily Voice: This CIO sees double-digit upside for Indian stocks for the year ahead, urges caution on US markets

Rohit Beri, the CEO &amp;amp; CIO at ArthAlpha is cautious when it comes to US equity markets. &quot;I agree with the AI theme overall, but maybe it's overdone in the short run, so we may see some pullback over there,&quot; he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

As far as India is concerned, he believes risks are more on the upside and markets may rally sharply once it starts seeing earnings growth coming back and sentiment turning in the market. &quot;I'm reasonably bullish and expect equity markets to give double digit returns over the next 12-month period,&quot; he said.

Do you believe gold serves as a strong hedge or insurance for a portfolio? Given the sharp rally so far, would it be wise to stay away from fresh gold buying at this stage?

Gold has always been a good hedge against inflation in the long run. But, short run correlation between inflation and gold is not that strong. So, when one thinks of gold as a hedge, one has to be very careful. It is definitely a hedge for black swan events. One should not confuse black swan event hedge as an equity downside hedge.

The last few months have been an unprecedented rally in gold due to de-dollarization resulting from change in US geopolitics. I expect the trend in de-dollarization to continue and central bank demand for gold to stay strong. However, the current rally may not last for long. So, one has to be very careful.

I will advise investors to not look at short-term tactical trades in gold but to focus on long-term asset allocation. Taking some profits in gold, particularly in silver at this stage, might actually be a good idea.

Do you expect the year ahead to be a strong one for equity markets?

I'm cautious when it comes to US equity markets. There has been an unprecedented rally in global tech stocks. I agree with the AI theme overall, but maybe it's overdone in the short run, so we may see some pullback over there.

As far as India is concerned, I think the time correction has been substantial. I believe risks are more on the upside and markets may rally sharply once we start seeing earnings growth coming back and sentiment turning in the market. I'm reasonably bullish and expect equity markets to give double digit returns over the next 12-month period.

Do you think foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are gradually shifting more capital towards India?

I'm not particularly seeing a strong inflow as yet, but clearly the outflow seems to have stopped at least, if not at least, then for a temporary basis. I think India at current level looks attractive to me. Maybe not as attractive as China, which is more attractive for sure from a valuation perspective. But I personally think post this earning cycle we should see demand returning again in India.

Remember FII money is comparing what they can make in India to what they can make in their home markets or other emerging markets, including China. So, it's a relative value game. But India does represent a strong capital appreciation opportunity for investors, so I am reasonably bullish about the market.

What are your top picks - segments or stocks - in the consumption space?

I can't talk about stock picks, we are a quant and we play more factors in quants than stocks. From a factor perspective, we will continue to bet on growth and earnings. I do believe that momentum as a factor will start picking up after a long underperformance cycle. Again, take it with a pinch of salt or a bucket of salt. Mean Reversion is the truth of life, so after such a tremendous underperformance, I expect that momentum will make a comeback. Maybe not very strong in the short run, but we should start.

This current month is a good month for momentum. I do see materials doing well, for e.g., cement, solar. From a medium-term perspective, defence should also, I still continue to stay bullish on defence. I am also bullish on banks, given the RBI's recent relaxations in the norms.

Which investment themes are likely to strengthen a portfolio in terms of returns in the next one year, and why?

We are not a thematic player and we don't really think one year out. As of now, as I said, our focus is on growth and earnings. For the time being we will continue to play that. We do expect a comeback on momentum as a strategy and we have a positive allocation to that as well. Value has done very well, exceedingly well. I believe value may lose out to let's have momentum or growth strategies over the next 12-month period. But as a quant, we really don't take that longer calls and we very dynamically adapt to changing market conditions.

Do you expect the US Federal Reserve to continue its monetary easing cycle in October and December? Also, do you believe the recent US Beige Book signals a loss of economic momentum?

I believe we will start to see the effect of tariffs on the US economy as we go forward. The Fed's job, I believe, will get really hard because on one side tariffs will induce inflation, on the other side they will slow down economic activity and may take the economy towards recession and put the US into a stagflation situation.

I do believe at the moment and I expect the Fed to continue the rate cutting cycle, but at some point, in time if the inflation starts hitting them, then it may become a very difficult situation for the Fed to manage.

As of now from our perspective, it's wait and watch and see how things pan out. How tariff linked inflation and how tariff linked slowdown is passed into the economy and what is the net effect post Fed cut rate is yet to be seen. It's unprecedented what's happening.

Uncertainty will continue, equity markets globally will stay volatile. Again, as I said earlier, de-dollarization to continue and gold will likely stay strong. I don't expect the kind of rally we saw and there might be some sharp retracement over the next few weeks.

But overall gold strength and de-dollarization to continue. And as of now, yes, the Fed continues on the easing cycle.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

The formation of a Shooting Star–like candlestick pattern on the weekly chart is a potential sign that the uptrend is losing steam in Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty, Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

But, "still, a confirmation in the form of a bearish follow-through candle is needed to validate any reversal signal," he added.

Meanwhile, after 48 percent rally since August, Sudeep Shah sees the possibility of profit booking or consolidation in <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/finance-housing/sammaancapital/IHF01">Sammaan Capital</a>, while he bets on <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/ironsteel/hindalcoindustries/HI">Hindalco</a> and <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/finance-nbfc/cholamandalaminvestmentfinancecompany/CDB">Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company</a> for next week.

Do you expect the Nifty to test 25,500 before rebounding toward the record highs, or is there a higher chance of the index decisively breaking below 25,500?

The Indian equity market has witnessed a stellar rally this October, with the benchmark Nifty surging over 1,500 points from its low of 24,588 — all within just 15 trading sessions. This swift upswing highlights strong bullish momentum, driven by festive cheer, robust domestic inflows, and improving global cues.

During the Diwali week, Nifty came tantalizingly close to its all-time high, raising expectations of a breakout. However, the index couldn’t hold on to the gains and saw profit booking, indicating that investors may be adopting a more cautious stance after the steep rise.

This pause in momentum has resulted in the formation of a Shooting Star–like candlestick pattern on the weekly chart — a potential sign that the uptrend is losing steam. The pattern reflects that bulls attempted to drive prices higher but faced selling pressure near the top. Still, a confirmation in the form of a bearish follow-through candle is needed to validate any reversal signal. The daily RSI, which had peaked at 72.69, has now eased to 67.19 and is trending lower, adding to the cautious sentiment.

On the macro front, the market is awaiting clarity on the India–US trade deal, which could act as a major trigger for the next directional move. With technical indicators cooling off and global developments under watch, the coming sessions will be decisive in determining whether this is merely a temporary pause or the start of a deeper correction.

From a technical perspective, the 25,550–25,500 zone will serve as a key support area, being the confluence of the 13-day EMA and the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the recent upswing (24,588–26,104). On the upside, the 25,950–26,000 range will act as a crucial resistance zone. A sustained move above 26,000 could open the doors for a sharp rally toward the 26,300 level.

Is there a possibility of further correction in the Bank Nifty?

The Bank Nifty index surged to a new all-time high on Thursday, showcasing strong sectoral momentum and solid investor confidence. However, the index struggled to hold above the crucial 58,500 mark and soon faced profit booking, hinting at a short-term shift in sentiment after a sharp rally.

This retracement resulted in the formation of a Shooting Star candlestick pattern on the weekly chart — a technical indicator that often signals potential trend exhaustion.

Further supporting this cautious view, the daily RSI has started to weaken. After reaching a peak of 76, it has now given a bearish crossover and is trending lower, typically indicating a loss of momentum and the likelihood of a consolidation phase.

With Bank Nifty positioned at a critical juncture, traders will be watching upcoming sessions closely for confirmation. Whether this move turns out to be a brief pause or the beginning of a deeper correction will depend on how prices behave in the next few trading days.

On the technical front, the 57,000–56,900 zone will serve as a key support area, coinciding with the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the recent upmove. On the upside, resistance is placed around 58,200–58,300. A sustained move above 58,300 could trigger a sharp rally toward 59,000 and then 59,500 in the short term.

Does Sammaan Capital appear overbought now after its stellar run since August?

Sammaan Capital has delivered an impressive 48 percent rally since the start of August, currently trading well above all key moving averages. However, technical indicators suggest the stock may be approaching a peak.

The ADX has climbed to 51.08, its highest level since August 2023, indicating a very strong trend, while the RSI has surged to 81.15, marking extreme overbought conditions not seen since June 2021. These signals point towards the likelihood of near-term profit booking or a consolidation phase. That said, the stock remains in a strong uptrend, and further upside is possible once it undergoes a healthy correction to absorb short-term gains.

Are you bullish NALCO for next week as well?

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/aluminium/nationalaluminiumcompany/NAC">National Aluminium Company</a> (NALCO) continue to display strong bullish undertones, supported by robust price structures and positive technical signals. NALCO broke out of its Rs 220–230 consolidation zone on strong volumes. The RSI and ADX are rising, reflecting growing trend strength, while the MACD crossover reinforces bullish momentum. With both stocks trading above key moving averages and the Metal Index at a record high, the outlook remains firmly positive for the days ahead.

What are your top two picks for next week?

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/finance-nbfc/cholamandalaminvestmentfinancecompany/CDB">Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company</a>

Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company has finally broken past the strong resistance zone of Rs 1,680–1,700, a level that had capped the stock’s upside on three previous occasions since April. The breakout on Friday came with robust volumes, adding conviction to the move. On the daily chart, the stock maintains a higher high–higher low formation, reflecting a strong underlying uptrend. It continues to trade comfortably above both short- and long-term moving averages, underscoring sustained momentum.

The ADX indicator is rising, signalling strengthening trend dynamics, while the RSI has turned upwards, indicating renewed buying interest. These factors together suggest the stock could see further upside in the near term. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 1,735-1,725 with a stop-loss of Rs 1,675. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 1,850 in the short term.

<a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/ironsteel/hindalcoindustries/HI">Hindalco Industries</a>

Hindalco Industries hit a fresh all-time high of Rs 827 in Friday’s session, extending its strong upward momentum. The Hindalco/Nifty ratio chart has given a fresh breakout, highlighting the stock’s relative outperformance within the broader market. Price action remains constructive, moving in a higher high–higher low formation, with the 20-day EMA acting as a firm support throughout the rally.

The Rs 790–800 zone, which earlier served as a key resistance, was taken out decisively with strong volumes. The DI lines in the ADX indicator are widening, indicating a strengthening trend, while the MACD slope is turning upward, suggesting increasing bullish momentum in the stock. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 825-815 with a stop-loss of Rs 790. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 880 in the short term.

Is this the right time to bet on <a href="https://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/engines/cumminsindia/CI02">Cummins India</a>, which seems to be forming a cup and handle pattern?

Cummins India appears poised for a strong up move after breaking out of a Stage-2 Cup pattern. The breakout, confirmed by robust follow-through buying on Friday, signals renewed bullish momentum. The stock has also closed above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating strong buying interest and the potential start of a new leg higher.

Adding to the optimism, the MACD has generated a bullish crossover above the signal line, with rising histogram bars pointing to accelerating upward momentum. Overall, the price action coupled with technical indicators and oscillators reinforces a positive bias for further gains in the near term.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Chartist talk: Momentum cooling? Sudeep Shah flags caution after shooting-star formations in Nifty, Bank Nifty

The formation of a Shooting Star–like candlestick pattern on the weekly chart is a potential sign that the uptrend is losing steam in Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty, Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

But, &quot;still, a confirmation in the form of a bearish follow-through candle is needed to validate any reversal signal,&quot; he added.

Meanwhile, after 48 percent rally since August, Sudeep Shah sees the possibility of profit booking or consolidation in Sammaan Capital, while he bets on Hindalco and Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company for next week.

Do you expect the Nifty to test 25,500 before rebounding toward the record highs, or is there a higher chance of the index decisively breaking below 25,500?

The Indian equity market has witnessed a stellar rally this October, with the benchmark Nifty surging over 1,500 points from its low of 24,588 — all within just 15 trading sessions. This swift upswing highlights strong bullish momentum, driven by festive cheer, robust domestic inflows, and improving global cues.

During the Diwali week, Nifty came tantalizingly close to its all-time high, raising expectations of a breakout. However, the index couldn’t hold on to the gains and saw profit booking, indicating that investors may be adopting a more cautious stance after the steep rise.

This pause in momentum has resulted in the formation of a Shooting Star–like candlestick pattern on the weekly chart — a potential sign that the uptrend is losing steam. The pattern reflects that bulls attempted to drive prices higher but faced selling pressure near the top. Still, a confirmation in the form of a bearish follow-through candle is needed to validate any reversal signal. The daily RSI, which had peaked at 72.69, has now eased to 67.19 and is trending lower, adding to the cautious sentiment.

On the macro front, the market is awaiting clarity on the India–US trade deal, which could act as a major trigger for the next directional move. With technical indicators cooling off and global developments under watch, the coming sessions will be decisive in determining whether this is merely a temporary pause or the start of a deeper correction.

From a technical perspective, the 25,550–25,500 zone will serve as a key support area, being the confluence of the 13-day EMA and the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the recent upswing (24,588–26,104). On the upside, the 25,950–26,000 range will act as a crucial resistance zone. A sustained move above 26,000 could open the doors for a sharp rally toward the 26,300 level.

Is there a possibility of further correction in the Bank Nifty?

The Bank Nifty index surged to a new all-time high on Thursday, showcasing strong sectoral momentum and solid investor confidence. However, the index struggled to hold above the crucial 58,500 mark and soon faced profit booking, hinting at a short-term shift in sentiment after a sharp rally.

This retracement resulted in the formation of a Shooting Star candlestick pattern on the weekly chart — a technical indicator that often signals potential trend exhaustion.

Further supporting this cautious view, the daily RSI has started to weaken. After reaching a peak of 76, it has now given a bearish crossover and is trending lower, typically indicating a loss of momentum and the likelihood of a consolidation phase.

With Bank Nifty positioned at a critical juncture, traders will be watching upcoming sessions closely for confirmation. Whether this move turns out to be a brief pause or the beginning of a deeper correction will depend on how prices behave in the next few trading days.

On the technical front, the 57,000–56,900 zone will serve as a key support area, coinciding with the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the recent upmove. On the upside, resistance is placed around 58,200–58,300. A sustained move above 58,300 could trigger a sharp rally toward 59,000 and then 59,500 in the short term.

Does Sammaan Capital appear overbought now after its stellar run since August?

Sammaan Capital has delivered an impressive 48 percent rally since the start of August, currently trading well above all key moving averages. However, technical indicators suggest the stock may be approaching a peak.

The ADX has climbed to 51.08, its highest level since August 2023, indicating a very strong trend, while the RSI has surged to 81.15, marking extreme overbought conditions not seen since June 2021. These signals point towards the likelihood of near-term profit booking or a consolidation phase. That said, the stock remains in a strong uptrend, and further upside is possible once it undergoes a healthy correction to absorb short-term gains.

Are you bullish NALCO for next week as well?

National Aluminium Company (NALCO) continue to display strong bullish undertones, supported by robust price structures and positive technical signals. NALCO broke out of its Rs 220–230 consolidation zone on strong volumes. The RSI and ADX are rising, reflecting growing trend strength, while the MACD crossover reinforces bullish momentum. With both stocks trading above key moving averages and the Metal Index at a record high, the outlook remains firmly positive for the days ahead.

What are your top two picks for next week?

Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company

Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company has finally broken past the strong resistance zone of Rs 1,680–1,700, a level that had capped the stock’s upside on three previous occasions since April. The breakout on Friday came with robust volumes, adding conviction to the move. On the daily chart, the stock maintains a higher high–higher low formation, reflecting a strong underlying uptrend. It continues to trade comfortably above both short- and long-term moving averages, underscoring sustained momentum.

The ADX indicator is rising, signalling strengthening trend dynamics, while the RSI has turned upwards, indicating renewed buying interest. These factors together suggest the stock could see further upside in the near term. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 1,735-1,725 with a stop-loss of Rs 1,675. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 1,850 in the short term.

Hindalco Industries

Hindalco Industries hit a fresh all-time high of Rs 827 in Friday’s session, extending its strong upward momentum. The Hindalco/Nifty ratio chart has given a fresh breakout, highlighting the stock’s relative outperformance within the broader market. Price action remains constructive, moving in a higher high–higher low formation, with the 20-day EMA acting as a firm support throughout the rally.

The Rs 790–800 zone, which earlier served as a key resistance, was taken out decisively with strong volumes. The DI lines in the ADX indicator are widening, indicating a strengthening trend, while the MACD slope is turning upward, suggesting increasing bullish momentum in the stock. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 825-815 with a stop-loss of Rs 790. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 880 in the short term.

Is this the right time to bet on Cummins India, which seems to be forming a cup and handle pattern?

Cummins India appears poised for a strong up move after breaking out of a Stage-2 Cup pattern. The breakout, confirmed by robust follow-through buying on Friday, signals renewed bullish momentum. The stock has also closed above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating strong buying interest and the potential start of a new leg higher.

Adding to the optimism, the MACD has generated a bullish crossover above the signal line, with rising histogram bars pointing to accelerating upward momentum. Overall, the price action coupled with technical indicators and oscillators reinforces a positive bias for further gains in the near term.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

The broader indices outperformed the main indices in the volatile week ended October 24 with BSE Mid and Smallcap indices rising 0.5 percent and 1 percent respectively in the truncated Diwali week amid support from FII and better Q2 earnings so far.

For the week, BSE Sensex index jumped 259.69 points or 0.30 percent to end at 84,211.88 and Nifty50 rose 85.3 points or 0.33 percent to end at 25,795.15. However, for thr month of October till now, both the benchmarks added nearly 5%.

The Foreign Institutional Investors' (FIIs) turned net buyers for week as they bought equities worth Rs 342.74 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) continued their buying on 27th week, as they purchased equities worth Rs 5945.31 crore.

In this month, FII sold equities of Rs 244.02 crore, while DII bought equities worth Rs 33,989.76 crore, till now.

Among sectors, Nifty IT index gained 3%, PSU Bank added 2%, Nifty Metal index gained 1.5%, Nifty Media index up 1.3%, Nifty Oil &amp; Gas index up 1%, while Nifty FMCG and Auto indices down 0.5% each.

"The week welcomed the Samvat 2082 with festive-driven optimism and upbeat consumer sentiment. However, the momentum gradually lost its steam, as geopolitical tensions and profit-taking weighed on investor confidence. Record festive sales underscored India’s surge in consumer demand this season, powered by resilient household spending and GST-driven affordability. PSU banking stocks led the rally, buoyed by news of potential consolidation and better-than-expected results," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments.

"Meanwhile, the precious metals market faced extreme volatility, suffering its sharpest single day fall in over a decade, driven by profit booking and a strengthening USD. Crude oil prices surged sharply following fresh sanctions from the US and EU on Russian oil majors, sparking heightened fears of tightening global supply and renewed inflation concerns. This could negatively impact India, as elevated crude prices may widen the fiscal deficit and strain the import bill."

"Investors remain watchful of developments in the India-US trade negotiations, as both sides edge closer to finalizing a deal. Global market sentiment will largely hinge on key interest rate decisions from the FED &amp; ECB by next week, which are expected to influence market direction in the near term," he added.

The BSE Small-cap index added nearly 1 percent with Bhageria Industries, Mafatlal Industries, DCB Bank, Shipping Corporation of India, Rajratan Global Wire, Utkarsh Small Finance Bank rising between 21-36 percent, while losers were Stallion India Fluorochemicals, Gallantt Ispat, Indo Thai Securities, Uniparts India, Kellton Tech Solutions, Genesys International Corporation, Astec Lifesciences, Tanla Platforms.

<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13631889" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251025053813_Untitled.png" alt="Untitled" width="752" height="863" />

Where is Nifty50 headed?

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty in the next 1–2 sessions might remain volatile; however, a sustained rally looks possible thereafter.

On the higher end, resistance is placed at 25,850, above which a rally towards 26,000–26,200 looks possible.

Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Markets on Monday would react to the quarterly result of banking heavyweight Kotak Mahindra Bank to be announced over the weekend. Overall, we expect Indian equities to remain range bound, tracking global cues, upcoming Q2 results and macro-economic data.

FII inflows and upbeat management commentaries could help sustain positive market momentum, though intermittent profit booking cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, any progress on the India-US trade deal front, could further uplift investor sentiments.

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities

Nifty on the weekly chart formed a small negative candle with long upper shadow, which signals consolidation movement at the highs.

The overall near-term trend of Nifty remains positive but the market is facing selling pressure as per short-term basis. Further weakness from here could bring crucial support around 25600-25500 levels, which could be a buy on dips opportunity for the next week. Immediate resistance is placed at 25950.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

More than 40 smallcaps gain between 10-36% as broader indices outperform

The broader indices outperformed the main indices in the volatile week ended October 24 with BSE Mid and Smallcap indices rising 0.5 percent and 1 percent respectively in the truncated Diwali week amid support from FII and better Q2 earnings so far.

For the week, BSE Sensex index jumped 259.69 points or 0.30 percent to end at 84,211.88 and Nifty50 rose 85.3 points or 0.33 percent to end at 25,795.15. However, for thr month of October till now, both the benchmarks added nearly 5%.

The Foreign Institutional Investors' (FIIs) turned net buyers for week as they bought equities worth Rs 342.74 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) continued their buying on 27th week, as they purchased equities worth Rs 5945.31 crore.

In this month, FII sold equities of Rs 244.02 crore, while DII bought equities worth Rs 33,989.76 crore, till now.

Among sectors, Nifty IT index gained 3%, PSU Bank added 2%, Nifty Metal index gained 1.5%, Nifty Media index up 1.3%, Nifty Oil &amp;amp; Gas index up 1%, while Nifty FMCG and Auto indices down 0.5% each.

&quot;The week welcomed the Samvat 2082 with festive-driven optimism and upbeat consumer sentiment. However, the momentum gradually lost its steam, as geopolitical tensions and profit-taking weighed on investor confidence. Record festive sales underscored India’s surge in consumer demand this season, powered by resilient household spending and GST-driven affordability. PSU banking stocks led the rally, buoyed by news of potential consolidation and better-than-expected results,&quot; said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments.

&quot;Meanwhile, the precious metals market faced extreme volatility, suffering its sharpest single day fall in over a decade, driven by profit booking and a strengthening USD. Crude oil prices surged sharply following fresh sanctions from the US and EU on Russian oil majors, sparking heightened fears of tightening global supply and renewed inflation concerns. This could negatively impact India, as elevated crude prices may widen the fiscal deficit and strain the import bill.&quot;

&quot;Investors remain watchful of developments in the India-US trade negotiations, as both sides edge closer to finalizing a deal. Global market sentiment will largely hinge on key interest rate decisions from the FED &amp;amp; ECB by next week, which are expected to influence market direction in the near term,&quot; he added.

The BSE Small-cap index added nearly 1 percent with Bhageria Industries, Mafatlal Industries, DCB Bank, Shipping Corporation of India, Rajratan Global Wire, Utkarsh Small Finance Bank rising between 21-36 percent, while losers were Stallion India Fluorochemicals, Gallantt Ispat, Indo Thai Securities, Uniparts India, Kellton Tech Solutions, Genesys International Corporation, Astec Lifesciences, Tanla Platforms.



Where is Nifty50 headed?

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty in the next 1–2 sessions might remain volatile; however, a sustained rally looks possible thereafter.

On the higher end, resistance is placed at 25,850, above which a rally towards 26,000–26,200 looks possible.

Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

Markets on Monday would react to the quarterly result of banking heavyweight Kotak Mahindra Bank to be announced over the weekend. Overall, we expect Indian equities to remain range bound, tracking global cues, upcoming Q2 results and macro-economic data.

FII inflows and upbeat management commentaries could help sustain positive market momentum, though intermittent profit booking cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, any progress on the India-US trade deal front, could further uplift investor sentiments.

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities

Nifty on the weekly chart formed a small negative candle with long upper shadow, which signals consolidation movement at the highs.

The overall near-term trend of Nifty remains positive but the market is facing selling pressure as per short-term basis. Further weakness from here could bring crucial support around 25600-25500 levels, which could be a buy on dips opportunity for the next week. Immediate resistance is placed at 25950.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13631837" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251025043155_Sensex_up_nifty_airline.jpg" alt="The Indian markets started the new Samvat on a positive note, with benchmarks hitting fresh 52-week high during the week and extended the weekly gains in fourth consecutive week for the first time 2025 amid hopes of India-US trade deal, FII turning buyers and decent set of Q2FY26 earnings." width="1280" height="720" /> The Indian markets started the new Samvat on a positive note, with benchmarks hitting a fresh 52-week high during the week and extending the weekly gains in the fourth consecutive week for the first time in 2025 amid hopes of an India-US trade deal, FIIs turning buyers and a decent set of Q2FY26 earnings.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13631838" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251025043257_bse-nsee_nifty-Sensex.jpg" alt="For the week, BSE Sensex index jumped 259.69 points or 0.30 percent to end at 84,211.88 and Nifty50 rose 85.3 points or 0.33 percent to end at 25,795.15." width="1280" height="720" /> For the week, the BSE Sensex index jumped 259.69 points or 0.30 percent to end at 84,211.88, and the Nifty50 rose 85.3 points or 0.33 percent to end at 25,795.15.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13631840" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251025043319_stocks5.jpg" alt=" The BSE Large-cap Index ended with marginal gains. Vodafone Idea, Hindalco Industries, Shriram Finance, Infosys, Indus Towers, Cummins India gained 5-10 percent, while losers were Eternal, CG Power and Industrial Solutions, ICICI Bank, UltraTech Cement, Hyundai Motor India, Shree Cements, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, Hindustan Unilever." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Large-cap Index ended with marginal gains. Vodafone Idea, Hindalco Industries, Shriram Finance, Infosys, Indus Towers, Cummins India gained 5-10 percent, while losers were Eternal, CG Power and Industrial Solutions, ICICI Bank, UltraTech Cement, Hyundai Motor India, Shree Cements, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, Hindustan Unilever.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13631842" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251025043612_market_flat.jpg" alt="BSE Mid-cap Index rose 0.5 percent led by IDFC First Bank, Bank Of India, AU Small Finance Bank, Federal Bank, Central Bank of India, Bandhan Bank, CRISIL, while losers were Ola Electric Mobility, Dixon Technologies, Dalmia Bharat, Muthoot Finance, Supreme Industries, Kaynes Technology India, Fortis Healthcare, FSN E-Commerce Ventures." width="1280" height="720" /> BSE Mid-cap Index rose 0.5 percent, led by IDFC First Bank, Bank of India, AU Small Finance Bank, Federal Bank, Central Bank of India, Bandhan Bank, CRISIL, while losers were Ola Electric Mobility, Dixon Technologies, Dalmia Bharat, Muthoot Finance, Supreme Industries, Kaynes Technology India, Fortis Healthcare, and FSN E-Commerce Ventures.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13631843" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251025043634_sensex_stocks_nifty_stockmarket.jpg" alt="The BSE Small-cap index added nearly 1 percent with Bhageria Industries, Mafatlal Industries, DCB Bank, Shipping Corporation of India, Rajratan Global Wire, Utkarsh Small Finance Bank rising between 21-36 percent, while losers were Stallion India Fluorochemicals, Gallantt Ispat, Indo Thai Securities, Uniparts India, Kellton Tech Solutions, Genesys International Corporation, Astec Lifesciences, Tanla Platforms." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Small-cap index added nearly 1 percent with Bhageria Industries, Mafatlal Industries, DCB Bank, Shipping Corporation of India, Rajratan Global Wire, Utkarsh Small Finance Bank rising between 21-36 percent, while losers were Stallion India Fluorochemicals, Gallantt Ispat, Indo Thai Securities, Uniparts India, Kellton Tech Solutions, Genesys International Corporation, Astec Lifesciences, and Tanla Platforms.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13631845" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251025043702_sensex_nifty_stock_markets.jpg" alt="Among sectors, Nifty IT index gained 3%, PSU Bank added 2%, Nifty Metal index gained 1.5%, Nifty Media index up 1.3%, Nifty Oil &amp; Gas index up 1%, while Nifty FMCG and Auto indices down 0.5% each." width="1280" height="720" /> Among sectors, the Nifty IT index gained 3%, the PSU Bank added 2%, the Nifty Metal index gained 1.5%, the Nifty Media index up 1.3%, the Nifty Oil &amp; Gas index up 1%, while the Nifty FMCG and Auto indices were down 0.5% each.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13631846" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251025043725_sensex_nifty-market.jpg" alt="During the week, Reliance Industries added the most in terms of market value, followed by Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys and State Bank of India. On the other hand, ICICI Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Eternal, lost the most of their market-cap. (Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the soles beneficiary.)" width="1280" height="720" /> During the week, Reliance Industries added the most in terms of market value, followed by Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys and State Bank of India. On the other hand, ICICI Bank, Hindustan Unilever, and Eternal lost most of their market capitalization. (Disclaimer: Moneycontrol is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.)

<img class="size-full wp-image-13631847" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251025043754_stock1.jpg" alt="The Foreign Institutional Investors' (FIIs) turned net buyers for week as they bought equities worth Rs 342.74 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) continued their buying on 27th week, as they purchased equities worth Rs 5945.31 crore." width="1280" height="720" /> The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers for the week as they bought equities worth Rs 342.74 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued their buying on the 27th week, as they purchased equities worth Rs 5945.31 crore.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13631849" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251025043820_rupeegain_dollar.jpg" alt="The Indian rupee ended 12 paise higher at 87.85 per dollar on October 24 against the October 17 closing of 87.97. During the week, the Indian rupee traded in the range of 87.63-87.96." width="1280" height="720" /> The Indian rupee ended 12 paise higher at 87.85 per dollar on October 24 against the October 17 closing of 87.97. During the week, the Indian rupee traded in the range of 87.63-87.96.

The Foreign Institutional Investors' (FIIs) turned net buyers for week as they bought equities worth Rs 342.74 crore.

The Indian markets started the new Samvat on a positive note, with benchmarks hitting fresh 52-week high during the week and extended the weekly gains in fourth consecutive week for the first time 2025 amid hopes of India-US trade deal, FII turning buyers and decent set of Q2FY26 earnings.

For the week, BSE Sensex index jumped 259.69 points or 0.30 percent to end at 84,211.88 and Nifty50 rose 85.3 points or 0.33 percent to end at 25,795.15.

 The BSE Large-cap Index ended with marginal gains. Vodafone Idea, Hindalco Industries, Shriram Finance, Infosys, Indus Towers, Cummins India gained 5-10 percent, while losers were Eternal, CG Power and Industrial Solutions, ICICI Bank, UltraTech Cement, Hyundai Motor India, Shree Cements, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, Hindustan Unilever.

BSE Mid-cap Index rose 0.5 percent led by IDFC First Bank, Bank Of India, AU Small Finance Bank, Federal Bank, Central Bank of India, Bandhan Bank, CRISIL, while losers were Ola Electric Mobility, Dixon Technologies, Dalmia Bharat, Muthoot Finance, Supreme Industries, Kaynes Technology India, Fortis Healthcare, FSN E-Commerce Ventures.

The BSE Small-cap index added nearly 1 percent with Bhageria Industries, Mafatlal Industries, DCB Bank, Shipping Corporation of India, Rajratan Global Wire, Utkarsh Small Finance Bank rising between 21-36 percent, while losers were Stallion India Fluorochemicals, Gallantt Ispat, Indo Thai Securities, Uniparts India, Kellton Tech Solutions, Genesys International Corporation, Astec Lifesciences, Tanla Platforms.

Among sectors, Nifty IT index gained 3%, PSU Bank added 2%, Nifty Metal index gained 1.5%, Nifty Media index up 1.3%, Nifty Oil &amp; Gas index up 1%, while Nifty FMCG and Auto indices down 0.5% each.

During the week, Reliance Industries added the most in terms of market value, followed by Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys and State Bank of India. On the other hand, ICICI Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Eternal, lost the most of their market-cap. (Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the soles beneficiary.)

The Foreign Institutional Investors' (FIIs) turned net buyers for week as they bought equities worth Rs 342.74 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) continued their buying on 27th week, as they purchased equities worth Rs 5945.31 crore.

The Indian rupee ended 12 paise higher at 87.85 per dollar on October 24 against the October 17 closing of 87.97. During the week, the Indian rupee traded in the range of 87.63-87.96.

Market extends gains in fourth week, first time in 2025; FIIs turn buyers

<img class="size-full wp-image-13631837" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251025043155_Sensex_up_nifty_airline.jpg" alt="The Indian markets started the new Samvat on a positive note, with benchmarks hitting fresh 52-week high during the week and extended the weekly gains in fourth consecutive week for the first time 2025 amid hopes of India-US trade deal, FII turning buyers and decent set of Q2FY26 earnings." width="1280" height="720" /> The Indian markets started the new Samvat on a positive note, with benchmarks hitting a fresh 52-week high during the week and extending the weekly gains in the fourth consecutive week for the first time in 2025 amid hopes of an India-US trade deal, FIIs turning buyers and a decent set of Q2FY26 earnings.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13631838" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251025043257_bse-nsee_nifty-Sensex.jpg" alt="For the week, BSE Sensex index jumped 259.69 points or 0.30 percent to end at 84,211.88 and Nifty50 rose 85.3 points or 0.33 percent to end at 25,795.15." width="1280" height="720" /> For the week, the BSE Sensex index jumped 259.69 points or 0.30 percent to end at 84,211.88, and the Nifty50 rose 85.3 points or 0.33 percent to end at 25,795.15.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13631840" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251025043319_stocks5.jpg" alt=" The BSE Large-cap Index ended with marginal gains. Vodafone Idea, Hindalco Industries, Shriram Finance, Infosys, Indus Towers, Cummins India gained 5-10 percent, while losers were Eternal, CG Power and Industrial Solutions, ICICI Bank, UltraTech Cement, Hyundai Motor India, Shree Cements, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, Hindustan Unilever." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Large-cap Index ended with marginal gains. Vodafone Idea, Hindalco Industries, Shriram Finance, Infosys, Indus Towers, Cummins India gained 5-10 percent, while losers were Eternal, CG Power and Industrial Solutions, ICICI Bank, UltraTech Cement, Hyundai Motor India, Shree Cements, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, Hindustan Unilever.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13631842" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251025043612_market_flat.jpg" alt="BSE Mid-cap Index rose 0.5 percent led by IDFC First Bank, Bank Of India, AU Small Finance Bank, Federal Bank, Central Bank of India, Bandhan Bank, CRISIL, while losers were Ola Electric Mobility, Dixon Technologies, Dalmia Bharat, Muthoot Finance, Supreme Industries, Kaynes Technology India, Fortis Healthcare, FSN E-Commerce Ventures." width="1280" height="720" /> BSE Mid-cap Index rose 0.5 percent, led by IDFC First Bank, Bank of India, AU Small Finance Bank, Federal Bank, Central Bank of India, Bandhan Bank, CRISIL, while losers were Ola Electric Mobility, Dixon Technologies, Dalmia Bharat, Muthoot Finance, Supreme Industries, Kaynes Technology India, Fortis Healthcare, and FSN E-Commerce Ventures.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13631843" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251025043634_sensex_stocks_nifty_stockmarket.jpg" alt="The BSE Small-cap index added nearly 1 percent with Bhageria Industries, Mafatlal Industries, DCB Bank, Shipping Corporation of India, Rajratan Global Wire, Utkarsh Small Finance Bank rising between 21-36 percent, while losers were Stallion India Fluorochemicals, Gallantt Ispat, Indo Thai Securities, Uniparts India, Kellton Tech Solutions, Genesys International Corporation, Astec Lifesciences, Tanla Platforms." width="1280" height="720" /> The BSE Small-cap index added nearly 1 percent with Bhageria Industries, Mafatlal Industries, DCB Bank, Shipping Corporation of India, Rajratan Global Wire, Utkarsh Small Finance Bank rising between 21-36 percent, while losers were Stallion India Fluorochemicals, Gallantt Ispat, Indo Thai Securities, Uniparts India, Kellton Tech Solutions, Genesys International Corporation, Astec Lifesciences, and Tanla Platforms.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13631845" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251025043702_sensex_nifty_stock_markets.jpg" alt="Among sectors, Nifty IT index gained 3%, PSU Bank added 2%, Nifty Metal index gained 1.5%, Nifty Media index up 1.3%, Nifty Oil &amp; Gas index up 1%, while Nifty FMCG and Auto indices down 0.5% each." width="1280" height="720" /> Among sectors, the Nifty IT index gained 3%, the PSU Bank added 2%, the Nifty Metal index gained 1.5%, the Nifty Media index up 1.3%, the Nifty Oil &amp; Gas index up 1%, while the Nifty FMCG and Auto indices were down 0.5% each.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13631846" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251025043725_sensex_nifty-market.jpg" alt="During the week, Reliance Industries added the most in terms of market value, followed by Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys and State Bank of India. On the other hand, ICICI Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Eternal, lost the most of their market-cap. (Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the soles beneficiary.)" width="1280" height="720" /> During the week, Reliance Industries added the most in terms of market value, followed by Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys and State Bank of India. On the other hand, ICICI Bank, Hindustan Unilever, and Eternal lost most of their market capitalization. (Disclaimer: Moneycontrol is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.)

<img class="size-full wp-image-13631847" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251025043754_stock1.jpg" alt="The Foreign Institutional Investors' (FIIs) turned net buyers for week as they bought equities worth Rs 342.74 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) continued their buying on 27th week, as they purchased equities worth Rs 5945.31 crore." width="1280" height="720" /> The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned net buyers for the week as they bought equities worth Rs 342.74 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued their buying on the 27th week, as they purchased equities worth Rs 5945.31 crore.

<img class="size-full wp-image-13631849" src="https://images.moneycontrol.com/static-mcnews/2025/10/20251025043820_rupeegain_dollar.jpg" alt="The Indian rupee ended 12 paise higher at 87.85 per dollar on October 24 against the October 17 closing of 87.97. During the week, the Indian rupee traded in the range of 87.63-87.96." width="1280" height="720" /> The Indian rupee ended 12 paise higher at 87.85 per dollar on October 24 against the October 17 closing of 87.97. During the week, the Indian rupee traded in the range of 87.63-87.96.

Rakesh Vyas, the CIO and Portfolio Manager at Quest Investment Advisors is betting on pharma and specialty chemicals sectors as contrarian plays in the year ahead.

Concerns around US tariffs and the global inventory cycle have weighed on sentiment, but India’s position as the “Pharmacy of the World” provides a strong structural cushion, he reasoned.

According to him, the precious metal (gold), which delivered exceptional returns in the last one year, is unlikely to remain a top-performing asset in the year ahead. "Key global uncertainties — including trade and geopolitical risks — begin to ease, precious metals could lose some of their shine," he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Do you believe the worst is behind us now?

The last one year was marked by multiple idiosyncratic challenges — including an unstable US tariff stance, geopolitical tensions (particularly in South Asia and Middle East), a sharp slowdown in corporate earnings, and a steep rally in precious metals. Consequently, market returns remained moderate.

As several of these disruptions begin to normalize, the year ahead is expected to deliver healthier stock returns — likely in line with the long-term average range of 12–15 percent.

Do you expect the year ahead to be significantly better for the markets, especially after the modest 4–5 percent growth seen in Samvat 2081?

After four years of strong market performance, the last one year was a year of consolidation, characterized by persistent FII outflows and muted earnings growth, partly cushioned by steady domestic inflows.

In the year ahead, corporate earnings growth is projected to rebound sharply to 12–14%, which should not only lift market sentiment but also encourage foreign investors to re-enter Indian equities as growth visibility improves.

What are your top five wealth-generating themes for the year ahead?

Coordinated policy interventions by the Government and the RBI are expected to fuel robust growth across several sectors. Key wealth-generating themes include:
** Consumer Discretionary, driven by a sustained rise in consumption and household spending.
** Retail Lending, as credit growth accelerates on the back of improving consumer demand.
** Private Capex Revival, supported by improving capacity utilization and corporate confidence.
** Pharma and CRDMO, where the resolution of US-related trade uncertainties should revive export momentum.
** Above all, a portfolio strategy that remains “Agile with Growth and Patient with Value” should be well-positioned to create long-term wealth.

Most of the above sectors are likely to witness strong earnings momentum from CY26, translating into meaningful stock performance.

Are you confident that gold will continue to be a top-performing asset class in the year ahead, given the current global environment?

Precious metals (especially Gold) delivered exceptional returns in the last one year, supported by elevated geopolitical tensions, a weaker dollar, strong central bank purchases, and supply constraints. However, as key global uncertainties — including trade and geopolitical risks — begin to ease, precious metals could lose some of their shine. Thus, gold is unlikely to remain a top-performing asset in the year ahead, unlike in the previous year.

What is your contra bet — a segment or idea that others might be overlooking?

The Pharma and Specialty Chemicals sectors — with the Nifty Pharma index down about 4 percent in the last one year — appear ripe for a turnaround. Concerns around US tariffs and the global inventory cycle have weighed on sentiment, but India’s position as the “Pharmacy of the World” provides a strong structural cushion.

Moreover, the global realignment of supply chains, particularly in the CRDMO and specialty chemicals space, represents a multi-year growth opportunity. Patient investors could be well rewarded for taking a contrarian stance here.

What could be the biggest surprise for the equity market in the year ahead, if any?

The most significant positive surprise could come from a strong comeback of foreign institutional investors (FIIs). Over the last several quarters, weak earnings growth and elevated valuations prompted persistent FII outflows. However, with growth visibility improving and corporate profitability expected to pick up, FIIs may meaningfully return to Indian markets — potentially driving a valuation re-rating.

Many experts anticipate an earnings recovery from Q4 FY26 onward and GDP growth reaching 7 percent in FY26. Do you agree with this outlook?

Yes, the backdrop appears conducive for a strong earnings recovery from Q4 FY26 onward. The combination of reduced income taxes, lower EMIs due to interest rate cuts, liquidity infusion, and GST rate reductions should meaningfully boost consumption-led sectors.

For the BFSI space — which constitutes nearly one-third of market — margins have been pressured by front-loaded rate cuts and weak credit growth. However, as NIMs bottom out by Q3 FY26 and benefits from deposit repricing and CRR cuts kick in, profitability should improve. A recovery in BFSI alone could meaningfully drive overall earnings momentum.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Daily Voice: Gold unlikely to outperform in the year ahead, says this CIO; bets on pharma, specialty chemicals

Rakesh Vyas, the CIO and Portfolio Manager at Quest Investment Advisors is betting on pharma and specialty chemicals sectors as contrarian plays in the year ahead.

Concerns around US tariffs and the global inventory cycle have weighed on sentiment, but India’s position as the “Pharmacy of the World” provides a strong structural cushion, he reasoned.

According to him, the precious metal (gold), which delivered exceptional returns in the last one year, is unlikely to remain a top-performing asset in the year ahead. &quot;Key global uncertainties — including trade and geopolitical risks — begin to ease, precious metals could lose some of their shine,&quot; he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Do you believe the worst is behind us now?

The last one year was marked by multiple idiosyncratic challenges — including an unstable US tariff stance, geopolitical tensions (particularly in South Asia and Middle East), a sharp slowdown in corporate earnings, and a steep rally in precious metals. Consequently, market returns remained moderate.

As several of these disruptions begin to normalize, the year ahead is expected to deliver healthier stock returns — likely in line with the long-term average range of 12–15 percent.

Do you expect the year ahead to be significantly better for the markets, especially after the modest 4–5 percent growth seen in Samvat 2081?

After four years of strong market performance, the last one year was a year of consolidation, characterized by persistent FII outflows and muted earnings growth, partly cushioned by steady domestic inflows.

In the year ahead, corporate earnings growth is projected to rebound sharply to 12–14%, which should not only lift market sentiment but also encourage foreign investors to re-enter Indian equities as growth visibility improves.

What are your top five wealth-generating themes for the year ahead?

Coordinated policy interventions by the Government and the RBI are expected to fuel robust growth across several sectors. Key wealth-generating themes include:
** Consumer Discretionary, driven by a sustained rise in consumption and household spending.
** Retail Lending, as credit growth accelerates on the back of improving consumer demand.
** Private Capex Revival, supported by improving capacity utilization and corporate confidence.
** Pharma and CRDMO, where the resolution of US-related trade uncertainties should revive export momentum.
** Above all, a portfolio strategy that remains “Agile with Growth and Patient with Value” should be well-positioned to create long-term wealth.

Most of the above sectors are likely to witness strong earnings momentum from CY26, translating into meaningful stock performance.

Are you confident that gold will continue to be a top-performing asset class in the year ahead, given the current global environment?

Precious metals (especially Gold) delivered exceptional returns in the last one year, supported by elevated geopolitical tensions, a weaker dollar, strong central bank purchases, and supply constraints. However, as key global uncertainties — including trade and geopolitical risks — begin to ease, precious metals could lose some of their shine. Thus, gold is unlikely to remain a top-performing asset in the year ahead, unlike in the previous year.

What is your contra bet — a segment or idea that others might be overlooking?

The Pharma and Specialty Chemicals sectors — with the Nifty Pharma index down about 4 percent in the last one year — appear ripe for a turnaround. Concerns around US tariffs and the global inventory cycle have weighed on sentiment, but India’s position as the “Pharmacy of the World” provides a strong structural cushion.

Moreover, the global realignment of supply chains, particularly in the CRDMO and specialty chemicals space, represents a multi-year growth opportunity. Patient investors could be well rewarded for taking a contrarian stance here.

What could be the biggest surprise for the equity market in the year ahead, if any?

The most significant positive surprise could come from a strong comeback of foreign institutional investors (FIIs). Over the last several quarters, weak earnings growth and elevated valuations prompted persistent FII outflows. However, with growth visibility improving and corporate profitability expected to pick up, FIIs may meaningfully return to Indian markets — potentially driving a valuation re-rating.

Many experts anticipate an earnings recovery from Q4 FY26 onward and GDP growth reaching 7 percent in FY26. Do you agree with this outlook?

Yes, the backdrop appears conducive for a strong earnings recovery from Q4 FY26 onward. The combination of reduced income taxes, lower EMIs due to interest rate cuts, liquidity infusion, and GST rate reductions should meaningfully boost consumption-led sectors.

For the BFSI space — which constitutes nearly one-third of market — margins have been pressured by front-loaded rate cuts and weak credit growth. However, as NIMs bottom out by Q3 FY26 and benefits from deposit repricing and CRR cuts kick in, profitability should improve. A recovery in BFSI alone could meaningfully drive overall earnings momentum.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

10 out of 15 years NIFTY PSU Bank has given positive returns in October.

Type	R1	R2	R3	PP	S1	S2	S3
Classic	7,888.73	7,960.07	8,017.18	7,831.62	7,760.28	7,703.17	7,631.83
Fibonacci	7,880.68	7,911.00	7,960.07	7,831.62	7,782.55	7,752.23	7,703.17
Camarilla	7,829.17	7,840.95	7,852.72	7,831.62	7,805.63	7,793.85	7,782.08

INDEX CONTRIBUTION - NIFTY PSU Bank

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